· Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Città di Varese vs Solbiatese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Città di Varese and 0.82 for Solbiatese, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Città di Varese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Città di Varese win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Città di Varese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Città di Varese and 0.82 for Solbiatese, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 59% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Città di Varese
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontedera · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella Vis Modena · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Sesto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coriano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 3-2 (W)
Solbiatese
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Città di Varese win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.