· Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Cittadella U19 vs Padova U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Cittadella U19 and 1.83 for Padova U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Cittadella U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cittadella U19 win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cittadella U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Padova U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Cittadella U19
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezia U19 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Modena U19 · 1-1 (D)
Padova U19
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Entella U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bari U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezia U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 0-1 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2025-11-08T13:30:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 1-0 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2025-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 1-0 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2024-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 0-2 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2024-02-24T13:30:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 2-3 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2023-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 1-3 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2023-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 3-2 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
- 2022-11-12T13:30:00.000Z · Cittadella U19 0-1 Padova U19 (Campionato Primavera - 2)
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sampdoria U19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Renate U19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Cremonese U19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 5 | Virtus Entella U19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Bari U19 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Venezia U19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Avellino U19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Cittadella U19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pescara U19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Brescia U19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Latina U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Mantova U19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Monopoli U19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Padova U19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Napoli U19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Udinese U19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Spezia U19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Lecco U19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Frosinone U19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Modena U19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Ascoli U19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 2 |
| 15 | Sudtirol U19 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 16 | Reggiana U19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cittadella U19 win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.