· Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Cittadella Vis Modena vs Coriano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cittadella Vis Modena and 0.56 for Coriano, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Cittadella Vis Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cittadella Vis Modena win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cittadella Vis Modena home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coriano away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cittadella Vis Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Cittadella Vis Modena and 0.56 for Coriano, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.3%
- 0–015.9%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Cittadella Vis Modena
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltrepò · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs USD Casatese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontedera · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Correggese · 0-1 (L)
Coriano
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arconatese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontedera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cittadella Vis Modena win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.