· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Cittadella Vis Modena vs Pro Patria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cittadella Vis Modena and 0.93 for Pro Patria, a combined total of 1.79. That distribution gives Pro Patria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cittadella Vis Modena home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pro Patria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pro Patria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 31% / 33% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Cittadella Vis Modena and 0.93 for Pro Patria, a combined 1.79 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.7%
- 0–115.6%
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Cittadella Vis Modena
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltrepò · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs USD Casatese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasso Marconi Zola · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontedera · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Correggese · 0-1 (L)
Pro Patria
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Correggese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Casatese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Varese · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varesina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.