Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato · Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Cittadella vs Atalanta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.99 for Atalanta II, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Cittadella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cittadella win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cittadella home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atalanta II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cittadella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Cittadella and 0.99 for Atalanta II, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.6%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Cittadella
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ospitaletto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
Atalanta II
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pescara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Cittadella 2-2 Atalanta II (Coppa Italia Serie C)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cittadella win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.