Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Cittadella vs Renate Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Cittadella and 2.50 for Renate, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Cittadella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cittadella home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Renate away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cittadella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 18% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Cittadella and 2.50 for Renate, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.5%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–15.3%
Recent form
Cittadella
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ospitaletto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
Renate
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.