· Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Ciudad de Lucena vs Sanluqueño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ciudad de Lucena and 1.23 for Sanluqueño, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Ciudad de Lucena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ciudad de Lucena win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sanluqueño away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ciudad de Lucena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Ciudad de Lucena and 1.23 for Sanluqueño, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Ciudad de Lucena
Sanluqueño
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Marbella · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Estepona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Puente Genil | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tenerife II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atlético Central | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ciudad de Lucena win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.