Estadio Matías Prats · Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Marbelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and 0.90 for Marbelli, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Ciudad de Torredonjimeno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marbelli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ciudad de Torredonjimeno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and 0.90 for Marbelli, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico de Marbella · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mancha Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Armilla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Marbelli · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 1-2 (L)
Marbelli
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huétor Vega · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mancha Real · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0-2 Marbelli (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0-3 Marbelli (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2025-02-16T16:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2-2 Marbelli (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2024-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4-0 Marbelli (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Almería II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Marbelli | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Motril | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Málaga II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Granada II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Churriana Vega | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | UD San Pedro | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Torre del Mar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Porcuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Cantoria | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.