Estadio Matías Prats · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs UD San Pedro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and 1.03 for UD San Pedro, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Ciudad de Torredonjimeno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD San Pedro away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ciudad de Torredonjimeno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and 1.03 for UD San Pedro, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Huétor Vega · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico de Marbella · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mancha Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Armilla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Marbelli · 1-2 (L)
UD San Pedro
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbelli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Melilla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Motril · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Churriana Vega · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Almería II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T17:15:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0-1 UD San Pedro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2025-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0-2 UD San Pedro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2022-02-27T11:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2-0 UD San Pedro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
- 2021-10-31T17:00:00.000Z · Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5-0 UD San Pedro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Almería II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Motril | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Marbelli | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | UD San Pedro | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Málaga II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Granada II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.