· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Cleethorpes Town vs Whitby Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Cleethorpes Town and 0.84 for Whitby Town, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Cleethorpes Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cleethorpes Town win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cleethorpes Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Whitby Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cleethorpes Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Cleethorpes Town and 0.84 for Whitby Town, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.65 | 34.1% | 36.4% | 2.75 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.7% | 15.3% | 6.54 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 63.2% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 52.9% | 53.0% | 1.89 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.91 | 47.1% | 47.0% | 2.13 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.1% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.13 | 79.9% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 86.0% | 84.7% | 1.18 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cleethorpes Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ashton United · 1-0 (W)
Whitby Town
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Cleethorpes Town 6-0 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Cleethorpes Town 0-0 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2026-03-03T19:45:00.000Z · Cleethorpes Town 0-3 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cleethorpes Town win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.