· Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 2.05 for Montpellier, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Montpellier the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Clermont Foot home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montpellier away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montpellier to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Clermont Foot and 2.05 for Montpellier, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
Clermont Foot
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-1 (D)
Montpellier
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Etienne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunkerque · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.