Solitude · Referee S. Andrews · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Cliftonville FC vs Dungannon Swifts Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cliftonville FC and 1.00 for Dungannon Swifts, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Cliftonville FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cliftonville FC win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cliftonville FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dungannon Swifts away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Cliftonville FC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Glentoran · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 3-1 (W)
Dungannon Swifts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-2 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-2 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-0 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2026-04-03T18:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-0 Dungannon Swifts (Irish Cup)
- 2026-02-13T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 2-3 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 2-0 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-2 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2025-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-1 Dungannon Swifts (Irish Cup)
- 2025-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-2 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 4-1 Dungannon Swifts (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cliftonville FC win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.