Solitude · Referee E. Boyce · Analysis updated 06:41 UTC
Cliftonville FC vs Glentoran Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cliftonville FC and 1.37 for Glentoran, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Glentoran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cliftonville FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Glentoran away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 50.7% vs market 43.4%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 55.6% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.5% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 43.6% | 43.5% | 2.30 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.1% | 1.37 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 71.1% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cliftonville FC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Glentoran · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Larne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 3-1 (W)
Glentoran
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-2 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2026-04-07T18:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-2 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2026-03-18T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-3 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2026-02-24T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-4 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 2-2 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2025-12-02T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 0-0 Glentoran (League Cup)
- 2025-05-07T18:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 2-0 Glentoran (Premiership)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 1-0 Glentoran (League Cup)
- 2025-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Cliftonville FC 2-0 Glentoran (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.