Club America vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Club America and 1.28 for Club Tijuana, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Club America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Club America win

54.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Club America home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Club America win54%

Draw22%

Club Tijuana win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–19.6%
1–07.6%
2–07.6%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Club America

2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 5-3 (W)
2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)

Club Tijuana

2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T03:05:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-10T03:00:00.000Z · Club America 0-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2025-07-17T01:00:00.000Z · Club America 3-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2025-01-17T02:10:00.000Z · Club America 1-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2024-11-22T03:00:00.000Z · Club America 2-2 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2024-10-24T03:05:00.000Z · Club America 2-2 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2024-01-14T03:00:00.000Z · Club America 2-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2023-11-05T01:00:00.000Z · Club America 3-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2023-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · Club America 2-1 Club Tijuana (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-02-20T01:05:00.000Z · Club America 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
2022-07-24T01:00:00.000Z · Club America 0-2 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	14	7	5	2	9	26
3	Toluca	14	6	5	3	10	23
4	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	7	23
5	Leon	14	6	4	4	3	22
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	-2	21
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	5	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	6	2	4	1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	4	5	3	1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	-4	15
15	Atlante FC	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	3	4	6	2	13
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	-11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	1	2	11	-24	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Club America win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.