Dignity Health Sports Park · Referee M. Ortiz · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Club America vs Columbus Crew Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Club America and 1.80 for Columbus Crew, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Columbus Crew the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club America home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Columbus Crew away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Columbus Crew to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Club America and 1.80 for Columbus Crew, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
Club America
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 2-2 (D)
Columbus Crew
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York Red Bulls · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T02:45:00.000Z · Club America 2-0 Columbus Crew (Leagues Cup)
- 2024-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · Club America 1-1 Columbus Crew (Campeones Cup)
- 2023-08-01T00:00:00.000Z · Club America 1-4 Columbus Crew (Leagues Cup)
Leagues Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Leon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Austin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Juarez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota United FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Nashville SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter Miami | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Union | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 33 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 35 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Puebla | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.