Estadio Banorte · Referee Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico · Analysis updated 22:27 UTC
Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Club America and 1.50 for Guadalajara Chivas, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Club America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club America home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Club America
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:07:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · Club America 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · Club America 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2026-02-15T03:07:00.000Z · Club America 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-12T03:00:00.000Z · Club America 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-14T03:15:00.000Z · Club America 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-13T02:30:00.000Z · Club America 4-0 Guadalajara Chivas (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2025-03-09T03:05:00.000Z · Club America 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-06T01:30:00.000Z · Club America 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (CONCACAF Champions League)
- 2024-10-14T21:30:00.000Z · Club America 2-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-15T00:50:00.000Z · Club America 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.