Estadio Banorte · Referee Salvador Perez Villalobos, Mexico · Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
Club America vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Club America and 1.08 for Puebla, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Club America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club America win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club America home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club America to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Club America and 1.08 for Puebla, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Club America
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
Puebla
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club America win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.