Estadio Banorte · Analysis updated 17:22 UTC
Club America vs Toluca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Club America and 1.72 for Toluca, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Club America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club America home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club America to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Club America and 1.72 for Toluca, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Club America
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 2-2 (D)
Toluca
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.