· Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Club Atletico Barinas vs Atletico el Vigia FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Club Atletico Barinas and 1.33 for Atletico el Vigia FC, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Club Atletico Barinas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Atletico Barinas win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Atletico Barinas home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico el Vigia FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.9%
- 2–17.5%
- 4–16.2%
- 3–05.9%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Club Atletico Barinas
- 2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 2-3 (L)
Atletico el Vigia FC
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 5-2 Atletico el Vigia FC (Copa Venezuela)
- 2026-09-02T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 1-2 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 0-2 Atletico el Vigia FC (Copa Venezuela)
- 2026-05-31T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 7-1 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-04-05T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 2-3 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Urena SC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Trujillanos FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Deportivo Lara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Atletico Barinas win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.