· Analysis updated 21:07 UTC
Club Atletico Barinas vs Deportivo Lara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Club Atletico Barinas and 1.85 for Deportivo Lara, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Deportivo Lara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Lara win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Atletico Barinas home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Lara away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Lara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 23% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Club Atletico Barinas and 1.85 for Deportivo Lara, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Club Atletico Barinas
- 2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 2-3 (L)
Deportivo Lara
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Frontera · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 0-1 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
- 2026-07-25T21:00:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 1-4 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
- 2026-04-19T19:30:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 1-3 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
- 2026-02-21T21:00:00.000Z · Club Atletico Barinas 0-1 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Lara win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.