· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Club Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Club Atletico Barinas and 2.63 for Urena SC, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Urena SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Urena SC win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Atletico Barinas home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Urena SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Urena SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 23% / 18% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Club Atletico Barinas and 2.63 for Urena SC, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Club Atletico Barinas
- 2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC B · 2-3 (L)
Urena SC
- 2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Atletico Barinas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-03T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC B · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 29 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 63 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 46 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 40 |
| 6 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -10 | 40 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Barinas | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 29 | 3 | 3 | 23 | -44 | 12 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 37 |
| 4 | Aragua FC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 23 | 1 | 10 | 12 | -21 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Urena SC win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.