Jan Breydel Stadion · Referee N. Laforge · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 0.69 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Club Brugge KV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Brugge KV win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Brugge KV home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cercle Brugge away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Brugge KV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Club Brugge KV and 0.69 for Cercle Brugge, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 3–011.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Club Brugge KV
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
Cercle Brugge
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Brugge KV win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.