· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Club Brugge KV vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.56 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Brugge KV home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union St. Gilloise away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union St. Gilloise to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.56 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Club Brugge KV
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
Union St. Gilloise
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Antwerp · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.