Estadio Municipal Los Chankas · Referee K. Ortega · Analysis updated 16:22 UTC
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.82 for FC Cajamarca, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives FC Cajamarca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cajamarca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.82 for FC Cajamarca, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 0–15.0%
Recent form
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
FC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-18T18:15:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.