Estadio Municipal Los Chankas · Referee Michael Espinoza, Peru · Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.48 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juan Pablo II College away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.48 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-4 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2026-03-14T20:15:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-2 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-0 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-06-14T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-3 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.