Estadio Municipal Los Chankas · Analysis updated 09:49 UTC
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.05 for Santos, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Deportivo Los Chankas win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santos away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Santos
- 2026-08-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Universidad · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayacucho FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Binacional · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T20:15:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-0 Santos (Copa De La Liga)
- 2023-08-03T20:15:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2023-05-14T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4-1 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2022-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-5 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2022-06-26T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-0 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2021-09-21T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-0 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2021-07-22T15:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-0 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2020-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2019-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-2 Santos (Segunda División)
- 2019-07-14T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 Santos (Segunda División)
Copa De La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 17 |
| 2 | Alianza Atletico | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | ADT | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Comerciantes | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | UCV Moquegua | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Alianza Universidad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Molinos El Pirata | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Union Comercio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Academia Cantolao | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Santos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Deportivo Binacional | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 22 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | Juan Pablo II College | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 24 | U. San Martin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FBC Melgar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Cusco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | FC Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Universitario | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Alianza Lima | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Cesar Vallejo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Estudiantil CNI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Minas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 34 | Ayacucho FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Deportivo Los Chankas win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.