Estadio Municipal Los Chankas · Referee Edwin Ordonez, Peru · Analysis updated 12:34 UTC
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Sport Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 0.98 for Sport Boys, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Boys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Sport Boys
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2026-01-31T18:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2025-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2025-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2024-08-10T20:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-2 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2024-03-03T20:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2017-10-29T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-0 Sport Boys (Segunda División)
- 2017-07-09T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 Sport Boys (Segunda División)
- 2016-10-09T20:30:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-1 Sport Boys (Segunda División)
- 2016-06-18T20:00:00.000Z · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-3 Sport Boys (Segunda División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.