Estadio Rogelio Livieres · Referee D. Ojeda · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Club Guarani vs Cerro Porteno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Club Guarani and 0.99 for Cerro Porteno, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Club Guarani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro Porteno away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Guarani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Club Guarani and 0.99 for Cerro Porteno, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Club Guarani
Cerro Porteno
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.