Estadio Rogelio Livieres · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 10:00 UTC
Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Club Guarani and 0.60 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Club Guarani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Guarani win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Guarani home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 2–014.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Club Guarani
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubio NU · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 1-0 (W)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 2026-10-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · Club Guarani 1-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-04-10T23:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-02-13T21:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 3-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2020-11-16T23:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 2-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2020-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 1-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2020-01-17T21:00:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2019-11-10T20:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2019-08-24T22:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 3-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2019-04-09T00:15:00.000Z · Club Guarani 4-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2019-02-06T23:45:00.000Z · Club Guarani 3-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Guarani win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.