Estadio Rogelio Livieres · Referee Blas Romero, Paraguay · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Club Guarani vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Club Guarani and 0.75 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Club Guarani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Guarani win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Recoleta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Guarani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Club Guarani and 0.75 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Club Guarani
Deportivo Recoleta
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Guarani win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.