Estadio Rogelio Livieres · Referee J. Benitez · Analysis updated 19:39 UTC
Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Club Guarani and 1.05 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.5% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Guarani home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Asuncion away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–016.6%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Club Guarani
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubio NU · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 1-0 (W)
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-05-03T23:00:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-01T21:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 1-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-11-14T21:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-4 Nacional Asuncion (Copa Paraguay)
- 2025-09-21T19:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 2-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-07-12T21:00:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-04-26T22:00:00.000Z · Club Guarani 2-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-02-15T21:15:00.000Z · Club Guarani 2-1 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-11-29T22:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 0-0 Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-11-20T22:30:00.000Z · Club Guarani 1-2 Nacional Asuncion (Copa Paraguay)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.