· Analysis updated 20:31 UTC
Club Leon U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Club Leon U21 and 1.25 for Guadalajara Chivas U21, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Club Leon U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Club Leon U21 win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Leon U21 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Leon U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Club Leon U21 and 1.25 for Guadalajara Chivas U21, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Club Leon U21
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Queretaro U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 3-2 (W)
Guadalajara Chivas U21
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Leon U21 win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.