Estadio La Corregidora · Referee Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Club Queretaro and 1.33 for Leon, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Club Queretaro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Queretaro home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Leon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Queretaro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Club Queretaro and 1.33 for Leon, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Club Queretaro
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 3-1 (W)
Leon
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Club Queretaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T03:05:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.