Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia · Referee G. Juliadoza · Analysis updated 07:00 UTC
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.45 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Asuncion win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Asuncion away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional Asuncion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.45 for Nacional Asuncion, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.5%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 0-0 (D)
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Asuncion win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.