· Analysis updated 05:17 UTC
Club Tijuana U21 vs UNAM Pumas U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Club Tijuana U21 and 1.08 for UNAM Pumas U21, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Club Tijuana U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Tijuana U21 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNAM Pumas U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club Tijuana U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Club Tijuana U21 and 1.08 for UNAM Pumas U21, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Club Tijuana U21
- 2026-09-25T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T23:45:00.000Z · H vs Queretaro U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-28T23:40:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 2-1 (W)
UNAM Pumas U21
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.