Estadio Caliente · Referee Luis Enrique Santander Aguirre · Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Club Tijuana vs Atlas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Club Tijuana and 0.86 for Atlas, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Club Tijuana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Club Tijuana win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Tijuana home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 58.2% vs market 45.5%, edge +12.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.5% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +12.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 51.8% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 46.6% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.7% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.7% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.4% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -12.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T03:10:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
Atlas
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-3 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2026-03-05T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 1-2 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-08T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-0 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-10T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 3-4 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-25T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 3-0 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-27T03:05:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 0-0 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-21T03:10:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 0-0 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-30T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-0 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2023-03-04T03:15:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 1-1 Atlas (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-1 Atlas (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Toluca | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Club Tijuana win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.