Estadio Caliente · Referee Fernando Hernandez, Mexico · Analysis updated 07:04 UTC
Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Club Tijuana and 1.30 for Club Queretaro, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Club Tijuana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Club Tijuana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Queretaro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T03:05:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
Club Queretaro
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T02:10:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2026-01-15T01:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2025-07-12T03:05:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 1-0 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-25T03:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2024-07-06T01:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2024-02-10T03:10:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 1-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-22T01:06:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro (Leagues Cup)
- 2023-06-24T00:00:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 2-0 Club Queretaro (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-08T03:10:00.000Z · Club Tijuana 1-2 Club Queretaro (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.