New Douglas Park · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Clyde vs Dumbarton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Clyde and 1.43 for Dumbarton, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Clyde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Clyde win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Clyde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dumbarton away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
Clyde
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cowdenbeath · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Albion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 4-1 (W)
Dumbarton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartans · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Clyde 0-1 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Clyde 2-0 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2026-02-24T19:45:00.000Z · Clyde 0-0 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Clyde 3-1 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Clyde 1-2 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Clyde 0-1 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Clyde 2-0 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2023-12-23T15:00:00.000Z · Clyde 4-4 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Clyde 0-4 Dumbarton (League Two)
- 2022-11-26T19:45:00.000Z · Clyde 1-3 Dumbarton (FA Cup)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Clyde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Annan Athletic | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Clyde win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.