Coagh United vs Ballymacash Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Coagh United and 2.27 for Ballymacash Rangers, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Ballymacash Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ballymacash Rangers win

53.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 2.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coagh United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ballymacash Rangers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballymacash Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Coagh United and 2.27 for Ballymacash Rangers, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Coagh United win27%

Draw20%

Ballymacash Rangers win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.6%
1–17.6%
2–26.9%
1–36.5%
2–16.0%

Recent form

Coagh United

2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:43.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-23T17:45:06.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Ballyclare Comrades · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dollingstown · 3-2 (W)

Ballymacash Rangers

2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 2-5 (L)
2026-07-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Greystones United · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ards Rangers · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portstewart · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Intermediate League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strabane Athletic	25	15	3	7	11	48
2	Dollingstown	26	14	4	8	18	46
3	Moyola Park	25	13	4	8	34	43
4	Rathfriland	22	13	2	7	30	41
5	Newry City AFC	24	12	5	7	8	41
6	Ballymacash Rangers	24	13	1	10	11	40
7	Dergview	23	10	6	7	5	36
8	Ballyclare Comrades	26	11	3	12	-2	36
9	Oxford Sunnyside	25	11	2	12	6	35
10	Portstewart	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Knockbreda	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Coagh United	26	7	6	13	-19	27
13	Lisburn Distillery	25	7	4	14	-16	25
14	Banbridge Town	23	1	1	21	-79	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ballymacash Rangers win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.