Hagan Park · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Coagh United vs Lisburn Distillery Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Coagh United and 1.68 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Coagh United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coagh United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lisburn Distillery away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coagh United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Coagh United and 1.68 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
Coagh United
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:43.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-23T17:45:06.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Ballyclare Comrades · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dollingstown · 3-2 (W)
Lisburn Distillery
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Knockbreda · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:45.000Z · H vs Dergview · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Intermediate League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strabane Athletic | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Dollingstown | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Moyola Park | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 43 |
| 4 | Rathfriland | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 41 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Ballymacash Rangers | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Dergview | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Ballyclare Comrades | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Oxford Sunnyside | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 35 |
| 10 | Portstewart | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Knockbreda | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 | Coagh United | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Lisburn Distillery | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | Banbridge Town | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -79 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.