Coal India vs Mohun Bagan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Coal India and 1.65 for Mohun Bagan, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Mohun Bagan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mohun Bagan win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coal India home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mohun Bagan away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mohun Bagan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Coal India and 1.65 for Mohun Bagan, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Coal India win29%

Draw24%

Mohun Bagan win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–29.4%
0–19.1%
0–27.5%
2–17.1%

Recent form

Coal India

2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhawanipore · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohun Bagan · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NA Suruchi Sangha · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan · 2-0 (W)

Mohun Bagan

2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Coal India · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs East Bengal · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T09:30:00.000Z · A vs BSS Sporting · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Calcutta Premier Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	East Bengal	14	9	5	0	27	32
2	Bhawanipore	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Mohun Bagan	14	9	3	2	25	30
4	Mohammedan	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	United	14	6	5	3	15	23
6	Coal India	14	6	4	4	-3	22
7	Peerless	11	6	2	3	11	20
8	Aryan	11	5	4	2	12	19
9	Calcutta Customs	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Calcutta Police	11	5	3	3	2	18
11	Police	11	4	5	2	2	17
12	United Kolkata	11	4	4	3	6	16
13	Measurers	11	3	6	2	4	15
14	Kalighat	11	4	2	5	5	14
15	Railway	11	4	2	5	0	14
16	Kidderpore	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	BSS Sporting	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Patha Chakra	11	3	1	7	-20	10
19	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	2	3	6	-9	9
20	Rainbow	11	2	1	8	-18	7
21	Wari	11	1	4	6	-19	7
22	George Telegraph	11	2	1	8	-26	7
23	Kalighat Club	11	0	3	8	-17	3
24	Bidhannagar	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mohun Bagan win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.