Coal India vs Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Coal India and 1.25 for Police, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coal India home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Police away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Police to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Coal India and 1.25 for Police, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Coal India win34%

Draw28%

Police win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.3%
1–010.4%
0–09.1%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Coal India

2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs East Bengal · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhawanipore · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohun Bagan · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs NA Suruchi Sangha · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan · 2-0 (W)

Police

2026-08-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peerless · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs United · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Coal India · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Mohammedan · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs NA Suruchi Sangha · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-21T09:30:00.000Z · Coal India 1-1 Police (Calcutta Premier Division)

Calcutta Premier Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	East Bengal	14	9	5	0	27	32
2	Bhawanipore	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Mohun Bagan	14	9	3	2	25	30
4	Mohammedan	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	United	14	6	5	3	15	23
6	Coal India	14	6	4	4	-3	22
7	Peerless	11	6	2	3	11	20
8	Aryan	11	5	4	2	12	19
9	Calcutta Customs	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Calcutta Police	11	5	3	3	2	18
11	Police	11	4	5	2	2	17
12	United Kolkata	11	4	4	3	6	16
13	Measurers	11	3	6	2	4	15
14	Kalighat	11	4	2	5	5	14
15	Railway	11	4	2	5	0	14
16	Kidderpore	11	2	6	3	-3	12
17	BSS Sporting	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Patha Chakra	11	3	1	7	-20	10
19	NA Suruchi Sangha	11	2	3	6	-9	9
20	Rainbow	11	2	1	8	-18	7
21	Wari	11	1	4	6	-19	7
22	George Telegraph	11	2	1	8	-26	7
23	Kalighat Club	11	0	3	8	-17	3
24	Bidhannagar	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.