Coastal Union vs Mashujaa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Coastal Union and 0.90 for Mashujaa, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Coastal Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coastal Union home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mashujaa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Coastal Union win43%

Draw30%

Mashujaa win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.7%
1–113.2%
0–012.2%
0–111.0%
2–08.8%

Recent form

Coastal Union

2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JKT Tanzania · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polisi Tanzania · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-24T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Tabora United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 1-4 (L)

Mashujaa

2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagera Sugar · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbeya City · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Coastal Union · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Coastal Union 0-1 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2026-05-24T17:30:00.000Z · Coastal Union 1-0 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2025-12-01T13:15:00.000Z · Coastal Union 0-0 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2025-02-11T13:00:00.000Z · Coastal Union 0-0 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2024-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Coastal Union 0-1 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2024-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Coastal Union 2-1 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)
2023-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · Coastal Union 2-0 Mashujaa (Ligi kuu Bara)

Ligi kuu Bara table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Simba	8	8	0	0	15	24
2	Young Africans	8	6	1	1	13	19
3	Azam	8	5	2	1	6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	5	1	3	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	4	2	2	3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	3	3	3	1	12
7	Namungo	9	4	0	5	-3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	4	0	4	-4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	3	1	5	-5	10
12	Tabora United	8	1	4	3	-1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	1	3	5	-5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	1	2	5	-8	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.