Estadio Verapaz · Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Cobán Imperial vs Achuapa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cobán Imperial and 0.60 for Achuapa, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Cobán Imperial the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cobán Imperial win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cobán Imperial home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Achuapa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cobán Imperial to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 29% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Cobán Imperial and 0.60 for Achuapa, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.4%
- 0–015.0%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Cobán Imperial
- 2026-09-20T20:50:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo San Pedro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Comunicaciones · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 2-3 (L)
Achuapa
- 2026-04-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-17T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guastatoya · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cobán Imperial win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.