Estadio Verapaz · Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
Cobán Imperial vs Mixco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cobán Imperial and 1.25 for Mixco, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Mixco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cobán Imperial home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mixco away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mixco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 27% / 29% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Cobán Imperial and 1.25 for Mixco, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Cobán Imperial
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Antigua GFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-0 (W)
Mixco
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobán Imperial · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacateco · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.