Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cobreloa and 0.95 for San Marcos de Arica, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Cobreloa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cobreloa win

48.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cobreloa home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Marcos de Arica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cobreloa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Cobreloa and 0.95 for San Marcos de Arica, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Cobreloa win48%

Draw27%

San Marcos de Arica win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.3%
1–112.6%
2–09.4%
0–09.3%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Cobreloa

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Recoleta · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 1-0 (W)

San Marcos de Arica

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Copiapo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Luis	28	15	8	5	14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	14	9	5	21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	13	8	7	15	47
4	Magallanes	28	13	7	8	4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	28	11	8	9	-2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	8	11	9	6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	10	5	13	-9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	4	11	13	-14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	5	8	15	-32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	5	6	17	-18	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cobreloa win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.