Estadio El Cobre · Referee Mario Salvo Sepulveda · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Cobresal vs Concepción Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.26 for Concepción, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Cobresal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cobresal home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concepción away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cobresal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Cobresal and 1.26 for Concepción, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.36 | 68.4% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.2% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.95 | 31.2% | 32.3% | 3.10 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.22 | 41.4% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.0% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.3% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.0% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.3% | 67.7% | 1.48 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 56.8% | 55.3% | 1.81 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.4% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -2.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.95 | 31.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cobresal
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
Concepción
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Cobresal 0-2 Concepción (Primera División)
- 2026-02-20T23:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 1-1 Concepción (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | D. La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.