Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador · Referee G. Philippe · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.28 for Universidad de Concepcion, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Cobresal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cobresal win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cobresal home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad de Concepcion away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Cobresal
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
Universidad de Concepcion
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T21:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 2-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Copa De La Liga)
- 2026-04-13T00:00:00.000Z · Cobresal 0-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2026-03-26T23:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 1-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Copa De La Liga)
- 2020-12-08T13:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 3-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2020-03-05T23:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 2-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2019-04-15T00:30:00.000Z · Cobresal 1-0 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 32 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | D. La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -22 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cobresal win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.