· Analysis updated 18:24 UTC
Coffrane vs Chênois Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Coffrane and 1.35 for Chênois, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Chênois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coffrane home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chênois away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chênois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Coffrane and 1.35 for Chênois, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Coffrane
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Portalban / Gletterens · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sion II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina Bern · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Azzurri Bienne · 1-2 (L)
Chênois
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne Sport II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Payerne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vevey Sports · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portalban / Gletterens · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri Bienne | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 3 | Servette II | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Naters | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 6 | Sion II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Chênois | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lancy | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 13 |
| 12 | Echallens | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Meyrin | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Stade Payerne | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.