· Analysis updated 14:23 UTC
Colchester United U21 vs Charlton Athletic U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Colchester United U21 and 2.21 for Charlton Athletic U21, a combined total of 4.46. That distribution gives Colchester United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Colchester United U21 home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Charlton Athletic U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colchester United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Colchester United U21 and 2.21 for Charlton Athletic U21, a combined 4.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–26.3%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Colchester United U21
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry City U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 3-4 (L)
Charlton Athletic U21
- 2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.